MONSOON FLUCTUATIONS | K. Siddhartha

MONSOON FLUCTUATIONS | K. Siddhartha

The Monsoons since their birth have never shown human expected ‘consistency’ in India. The variations have been called as Monsoon Fluctuations.
These fluctuations are the product of movement of #MLPT, Monsoon Low Pressure Trough, the #El_Nino effect, the #La_Nina effect, the variations associated with Indian Ocean Dipole,
Though the jet streams go a long way in explaining the origin of monsoon some questions remain unanswered. The great variation in the amount of rainfall both spatially and temporally, the high degree of uncertainty related to the date of arrival etc. are unexplained. When it is positioned close to the Himalayas and during the Monsoons it sucks all the moisture and becomes cause of very heavy rainfall as was experienced in 2013 Uttarakhand as well as 2023 Himachal rains.
The unusual cooling and heating of the of surface temperatures over the Arabian Sea by as much can cause the tropical cyclones to form in high regularity frequency and intensity. Just before the monsoon sets over Southeast Asia the atmospheric pressure over the Indian Ocean drops. Simultaneously about 10,000 kilometres away in the South Pacific there is rise in pressure, when the rain is over, this trend reverses. This phenomenon called southern oscillations is key indicator of the southwest monsoon. When the pressure over Indian Ocean is low than normal it augurs well for the good monsoon. All of it is caused by #ENSO that is #El_nino, #La_Nina.

Year to year variation of monsoon rainfall over the large number of years is known as the inter-annual variability of monsoon. Periodicity of monsoon is largely controlled by the global ocean atmospheric phenomena like El nino Southern oscillation (ENSO).

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