Societal fissures and ideological and cultural divisions have resulted in an offensive and antagonistic politics
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Coalitions are the reality
The Likud party could very well be in a position to get to 61 seats with its meagre 30 seats by forming a coalition with other smaller parties that share the same ideological leanings and have the usual partners such as Shas (Haredi religious party with nine seats), Yamina, the new right with seven seats, Religious Zionist Party with its six seats, and United Torah Judaism with its seven seats. Single party majority is a mirage in Israel, while a coalition government is the reality. Yet, the Likud plus these do not ensure that the figure of 61 can be reached and this is where Mr. Netanyahu is an issue. Parties led by second-rank leaders such as Yahir Lapid, Benny Gantz or Gideon Saar are opposed to him as he is the first Israeli Prime Minister on trial for three criminal cases — bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Benny Gantz formed a coalition with Mr. Netanyahu in the last election, in 2020, even when he campaigned on a single agenda, which was ‘No Netanyahu’. It was a political calculation that affected his seat tally. In the last three elections, he got seats in the order of 35-33-33, respectively.
Read More: A Suez lesson
Weak spots in the system
The Prime Minister in Israel does not have to resign when charged and indicted in court — any other Minister or the President of state has to step down. This strange legal loophole has given a very long rope to Mr. Netanyahu who not only is in office but could contest election after election. Israel does not have a full drawn Constitution; it does not have an institutional mechanism therefore to uphold public trust and the legal dignity of the highest political office.
For a decade it has been Mr. Netanyahu who could form multiple alliances and coopt smaller parties (ultra-religious, economic liberals, nationalist, settlers, etc.) behind his strong leadership. Since 1996 (the year Mr. Netanyahu became Prime Minister for the first time), governments in Israel have lasted for an average 2.3 years. Once a unifier and a decisive leader, he has now become the dividing figure in Israeli domestic politics. The last four elections, (in April and September 2019, March 2020 and now on March 23, 2021) have pushed the limits of Israeli electoral politics to new levels. Israel is now a leading democracy in the world with the most frequent national elections, a phenomenon which has exposed its deep-seated internal weakness. Israel does not have a basic common agenda any more.
For a long time, the issue of its conflict with neighbors and the Palestinians has served as a catalyst for national politics. But now, societal cleavages and ideological and cultural divisions have resulted in an offensive and antagonistic politics. Israel stands deeply divided and exposed.
Disintegration of society
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a Tel Aviv-based think tank, published its annual as well as a decade-long forecast of Israel’s security at the end of 2020. The INSS is a highly ranked think tank that works very closely with the state. An inevitable war with the Hezbollah and Iran’s nuclearization are the two top threats to Israel’s national security projected in 2021-2030. The third issue that has posed another existential threat is the internal disintegration of Israeli society, leading to the loss of its social cohesion and its identity as a Jewish and democratic state. The long phase of dysfunction in the Israeli government (during the last decade when Mr. Netanyahu has been leading the most number of governments), is one of the greatest threats. This is the first time that the INSS’s report points to internal domestic issues (not the conventional threats from outside) as being a major threat to the country’s strategic situation.
Israeli society was divided from the country’s inception, but Zionist labour was successful in working a common consensus. In-gathering of exiles, having the desert bloom and reviving the land of milk and honey were some of the threads used to weave a story that could unite culturally diverse and multiple ethnic groups among Jews.
After the rise of right-wing nationalist parties and a religious revival, post the 1967 war, there has been no common story to work with. Domestic schisms became aggravated and the multiple crises during COVID-19 did not help strengthen the fragile socio-economic fabric. All this affects the stability and the shared values that have characterized Israeli society and the way of life. Meanwhile, Israeli governments mirror the Indian phenomenon of the ‘aaya ram, gaya ram’ kind of coalition woes.
The President of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, has been expressing his anguish over this situation for a long time now. While the last government failed to complete even a year and collapsed, he said “there is a pressing need to revive the trust between the citizens of Israel and the state. That trust was damaged in the past year — seriously, maybe even critically”.
India must take note
The inner political crisis of Israel is a wake-up call for Indian democracy. There are many in India who look up to the Israeli model of a military-led national security, its abilities to retaliate and carry out surgical strikes as well as its aggressive pursuit of power. This model may not serve Indian national security in the long run as the Israeli story unfolds. Strong nations are often those with social cohesion, common values and an inner-capacity for dialogue and compromise. Many of my students are surprised that Israel is also a weak, vulnerable, deeply divided society — contrary to what they gather from stories of the Israeli Army, Mossad and television series such as Fauda. Israel may not have a new stable government soon and there is already a situation developing — of a deadlock that might push Israelis to a fifth election. It is indeed a defining moment for Israeli democracy.